Analysis and forecasts Friday 06.26.2009

EURUSD

The euro challenges the interim top side as it managed to breach above the 1.4 handle. Intra-day sentiment is bullish and won't be affected as long as potential pullbacks won't extend much below 1.4000. Resistance is clustered into the 1.4110-1.4175 region - formed by a downward trend-line at 1.4110 and also the 61.8% of the last down leg from 1.4340 to 1.3750, current week's top at 1.4140 and 1.4175, the high of June 11. Below 1.4000, next important support is formed by a rising trend-line extended through recent lows, now coming around 1.3900. Short-term sentiment is slightly positive but a breach above 1.4140 would confirm the uptrend. Current quote is 1.4031 @05:50 GMT

Support levels: 1.4000, 1.3950, 1.3900, 1.3830 and 1.3750/75
Resistance levels: 1.4060, 1.4140 and 1.4175/80
Market sentiment: long-term : bearish, mid-term : bullish, short-term : slightly bullish

Yesterday recommended trade: stand aside

AUDUSD

Current break above the downward trend channel's upper band at .8030 suggests that a potential reversal is underway, ending the corrective cycle. The Aussie dollar should now hold gains above support at .8000/10 - above the mentioned channel. While above the .8000 mark, intra-day sentiment will remain positive and rallies may target .8115 which is the first bullish target, followed by .8235 higher. Current quote is .8043 @05:50 GMT

Support levels: .8000/10, .7950, .7885/00, .7860 and .7800
Resistance levels: .8070, .8100/15 and .8235
Market sentiment: long-term : bearish, mid-term : bullish, short-term : slightly bullish

Yesterday recommended trade: long at .7760, initial stop at .7710, objective at .7860. Adjust stop to breakeven on +30 pips (at .7790) if reached : 0 (entry not reached)

EURCHF

Resistance starts at 1.5370/80 and could remain under pressure as the euro doesn't pullback yet. Above 1.5370/80, next objective emerges at 1.5425/45 - yearly top. Both short-term and intra-day studies are bullish. Potential pullbacks will probably be limited by the 1.5235 support. Current quote is 1.5322 @05:50 GMT

Support levels: 1.5300, 1.5235/50, 1.5150/60 and 1.5100
Resistance levels: 1.5380/00, 1.5425/45 and 1.5500
Market sentiment: long-term : bearish, mid-term : bearish, short-term : bullish

Yesterday recommended trade: long at 1.5160, initial stop at 1.5110, objective at 1.5230. Adjust stop to breakeven on +30 pips (at 1.5190) if reached : 0 (entry not reached)