EUR/USD intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot: 1.425

Our preference: Long positions above 1.425 with targets @ 1.435 & 1.4425 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.425 look for further downside with 1.421 & 1.415 as targets.

Comment: the pair has rebounded on its support and is shaping a bullish flag.

Key levels

1.4455

1.4425

1.435

1.4289 last

1.425

1.421

1.415

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More Setback For The Euro

ECB Executive Board member Bini-Smaghi said Greece would not receive the next loan package if it does not meet EU/IMF conditions. The Dutch finance minister said additional aid for Greece should be preceded by further reform and privatisations.

Greek opposition leader Samaras said that the party rejects Greece new austerity plan, while Greek Prime Minister Papandreou later said he agrees with some of the opposition's proposals but said broad political consensus is a national imperative.

The German IFO numbers signal that growth has peaked, despite the unchanged headline number. Expectations continue to decline, whereas this was offset by yet another improvement in current conditions. The details of German GDP were not so encouraging, especially following yesterday's weak PMI data. If core numbers from Germany start to disappoint, the euro could suffer some further downside.

Moody's said that Italy and Belgium were also likely to come under pressure if Greece defaults while Portugal and Ireland would be at risk of a multi-notch downgrade. The agency said Spain is not in the same category but would likely still face significant market pressure.

ECB Governing Council member Noyer said Greece has no alternative to implementing the EU-IMF programme "completely and entirely," and must use privatization to cut debt. ECB Executive Board member Stark says all euro creditors are `justified' in expecting their money back.

Euro Recovers Mildly

The euro staged a modest recovery during the Asia session after a failed attempt to break back below 1.40, While Eur/Chf also climbed back, helped higher by some warnings from the SNB about the deflationary risks associated with a stronger Swiss franc, and about its willingness to act if necessary.

Greek Finance Minister Papaconstantinou implied that if Greece does not receive the next quarterly tranche of cash it will be unable to honour its financial obligations. Imagining the likely consequences, he said "the country will halt payments" adding that "wages, pensions - all the state's expenses will not be paid." Papaconstantinou also revealed that the IMF has made it "absolutely clear" that it cannot disburse the next payment without a guarantee that European funding will be made available to Greece next year. This requirement potentially introduces further delay.

Greece announced plans to privatise several state assets. It also revealed its intention to impose fresh fiscal austerity measures designed to save a further 6 bln Euros. Further details are due to be announced next week, and presented to parliament in early June.

Fitch affirmed Belgium's credit rating at AA+ but lowered the outlook to negative from stable, citing heightened political risk. The agency said Belgium would likely be downgraded if it misses official deficit targets.

S&P provided some clarification on its decision to lower the outlook on Italy's rating to negative from stable on Friday. The agency said it does not expect Italy to seek financial assistance from the EU or from the IMF "due to the absence of imbalances". S&P also acknowledged that Italian banks, unlike those in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, or Spain, have made little use of ECB liquidity.